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ASML Q4 Preview: Bernstein Sees Revenue Beat as Final Bookings Report Nears

AI-fueled capex plus record China imports frame expectations for a strong quarter.

Logo of ASML is displayed at the company?s booth at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2025. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

Overview

  • Bernstein projects fourth-quarter revenue of about €9.7 billion, above the €9.5 billion consensus based on import data.
  • Investors expect bookings of at least €8 billion in what will be ASML’s final publicly disclosed bookings release.
  • Chinese imports hit a record €3.27 billion in Q4, with customers pulling forward deep ultraviolet tool orders to support leading-edge capacity.
  • Major chipmakers have outlined larger 2026 budgets—TSMC to $56 billion (+37%), Samsung to $40 billion (+24%), SK Hynix to $22 billion (+25%), and Micron to $20 billion (+45%)—bolstering equipment demand.
  • ASML remains the sole supplier of EUV systems for advanced chips, and its shares have roughly doubled since April with about a 25% gain this month.