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ASML Posts Solid Q3 and Confident 2025 Outlook as It Flags Sharp 2026 China Decline

Executives forecast 2026 revenue at least flat with 2025 to reinforce confidence beyond a China slowdown.

Overview

  • ASML reported Q3 net sales of about €7.5 billion and net profit of €2.125 billion, broadly in line with guidance and slightly ahead of profit consensus.
  • Net bookings reached roughly €5.4 billion, a touch above expectations, with management citing AI-driven demand and broader EUV adoption as structural tailwinds and reiterating a 2030 sales ambition of €44–€60 billion.
  • For Q4, the company guided revenue of €9.2–€9.8 billion and it continues to expect around 15% growth in total net sales for full-year 2025.
  • The company expects China customer demand and total net sales in China to fall significantly in 2026, but it does not expect total 2026 net sales to be below 2025; the CFO described the China shift as a normalization.
  • Management noted ongoing export-control and national-security pressures, with recent Dutch action at Nexperia and a U.S. congressional report underscoring geopolitical risks to China-facing business.