ASML Faces Earnings Test Over Durability of AI-Driven Demand

Overview

• ASML will publish third-quarter results at 7 a.m. CET on Wednesday, October 14, followed by an investor call at 3 p.m. CET, and investors expect updated order intake and guidance.
• The company reported strong second-quarter numbers that lifted full-year 2026 guidance to €43–€45 billion and raised margin targets, showing higher shipments and a €2.9 billion net profit.
• Management says AI-related customer demand has been very strong and has planned roughly a 30% increase in low-NA EUV capacity for 2027 while investigating another ~30% for 2028.
• Installed-base service and upgrades are growing and now provide substantial recurring revenue, which helps smooth the cycle but cannot fully offset timing risks from a small set of large chip customers.
• The stock trades at a steep premium of about 41 times forward earnings, making shares sensitive to any signs of weaker order timing, customer capex pullbacks, or export and geopolitical risks such as China restrictions.