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ASML Steadies Outlook With China Slide Looming as TSMC Sets Record and Expands Globally

AI demand is lifting results despite export curbs reshaping where chips are made.

Overview

  • ASML reported Q3 revenue of €7.5 billion and net profit of €2.125 billion, guided Q4 sales to €9.2–9.8 billion, and said 2026 total net sales should not fall below 2025.
  • CEO Christophe Fouquet warned that China-derived revenue will drop significantly in 2026 after a Q3 spike that left China at 42% of lithography system sales under tightened export limits.
  • ASML booked about €5.4 billion in new orders led by EUV tools for AI chips, highlighted progress on High‑NA with SK Hynix taking a first system, declared a €1.60 interim dividend, and is weighing a 2026 buyback.
  • TSMC posted a record Q3 profit up roughly 39% to NT$452.3 billion on strong AI demand, with revenue near NT$990 billion and a higher full‑year growth target of 35%.
  • TSMC is accelerating capacity in the US, Japan and Germany, with the €10 billion ESMC Dresden plant—70% owned by TSMC with Bosch, Infineon and NXP—on schedule for equipment installation from mid‑2027.