As China Tightens Grip, Brazil Seeks Bigger Role in Critical Minerals at COP30

Overview

• China’s refining lead and recent rare‑earth export curbs have heightened supply‑chain risk, with the IEA projecting demand to quadruple by mid‑century.
• Brazil is positioning at COP30 as a reliable, sustainable supplier, with PwC urging policies to move from raw concentrates to local processing.
• Pará, Brazil’s No. 2 mineral producer in 2024, is central to that push, and industry groups propose a traceability pact to curb illegal mining in the Amazon.
• Public and private financing is mobilizing, including Ibram’s roughly R$100 billion pipeline through 2029, a BNDES/Finep selection of 56 projects totaling R$45.8 billion, and a R$1 billion strategic minerals fund with Vale.
• Companies are expanding capacity, such as Vale’s second nickel furnace at Onça Puma launched in September and Sigma Lithium’s plan to double output by 2026 with BNDES financing, as Brazil explores international partnerships like the BNDES–US DFC co‑investment framework.