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Arthur Hayes Warns Tether’s Bitcoin and Gold Shift Could Strain USDT Buffer

Hayes says a 30% drop in those holdings could erase Tether’s reported cushion.

Overview

  • Tether’s latest attestation lists roughly $181 billion in assets, including about $12.9 billion in gold, around $9.9–$10 billion in Bitcoin, and more than $14 billion in secured loans.
  • S&P Global Ratings assigned Tether a “weak” stability score, citing increased exposure to volatile assets and disclosure gaps in reserve reporting.
  • Tether rejected S&P’s approach as outdated, saying it fails to reflect the scale of daily settlement flows.
  • Hayes estimates that a 30% decline in the combined gold and Bitcoin positions could offset about $6.8 billion in reported excess reserves, creating theoretical solvency pressure.
  • Supporters counter that volatile-asset holdings come from retained earnings and point to claims of over $10 billion in annual profit and substantial group equity, as calls grow for more frequent or real-time reserve transparency.