Overview

• Hayes published an Oct. 2 essay titled “Bastille Day” that castigates the European Central Bank and Christine Lagarde and portrays Bitcoin as the practical hedge for Eurozone savers.
• He cites France’s worsening TARGET2 position and heavy foreign ownership of French government and bank debt as signs of a fragile financing base.
• His scenario projects rapid deposit migration, with a directional estimate that roughly 25% of €2.6 trillion in French bank deposits—about €650 billion—could attempt to leave within days, with flows into Bitcoin and gold.
• He argues the ECB will ultimately expand its balance sheet by trillions of euros, either preemptively or after capital controls, which he says would debase the currency and support Bitcoin.
• Crypto outlets characterize the piece as analysis rather than evidence of ongoing capital flight, and they noted Bitcoin trading near $120,515 at press time.