Overview
- Hayes argues persistent U.S. deficits and heavy Treasury issuance will push the Fed to supply cash through its Standing Repo Facility, functioning as de facto QE.
- He says foreign reserve managers have cooled on Treasuries after sanctions on Russian assets, leaving leveraged relative‑value hedge funds as key marginal buyers financed via repo.
- In his framework, growing SRF usage would increase spendable dollars and ultimately lift Bitcoin and broader crypto prices.
- He cites near‑term liquidity drains from a government shutdown and a high Treasury General Account as reasons for recent crypto softness and he expects choppy trading until flows normalize.
- Hayes does not give a start date for sustained SRF use and presents his upside view, including a potential run toward $250,000 for Bitcoin by end‑2025, as a conditional projection.