Overview

• The BitMEX co-founder argues the long-referenced four-year pattern tied to halvings no longer explains Bitcoin’s moves, which he says follow global liquidity.
• He contends prior bull markets peaked when U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan conditions tightened rather than because a predefined cycle expired.
• Hayes highlights roughly $2.5 trillion shifting from the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility into markets via increased Treasury bill issuance as a defining feature of this phase.
• CME futures pricing points to a 94% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and about an 80% chance of another in December, supporting his macro-driven framework.
• He says China is moving away from deflationary policy, reducing a past headwind; Bitcoin trades near $122,000 with continuing spot ETF inflows, though firms like Glassnode and Gemini’s Saad Ahmed still see cyclical echoes.