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Arthur Hayes Predicts Equity Price Discovery Will Shift to 24/7 Crypto Perpetuals

He cites rising Hyperliquid volumes alongside new perp plans at major exchanges as early indications of that migration.

Overview

  • Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 enabled an XYZ-run Nasdaq 100 perpetual that Hayes says now trades over $100 million daily.
  • Hayes says SGX and CBOE are preparing perp-style offerings for late 2025, and Blockonomi reports Coinbase introduced a regulated variation for U.S. retail earlier this year.
  • He forecasts equity perpetuals will become a major product in 2026, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts gaining significant share by the late 2020s.
  • Hayes argues perps consolidate liquidity in a single, no-expiry market and rely on insurance and socialized-loss mechanisms to offer leverage that traditional clearing structures restrict.
  • He links the momentum to a friendlier 2025 U.S. regulatory stance that he says has opened room for sandbox-style derivatives experiments.