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Arthur Hayes Pitches Trillion‑Dollar Stablecoin Boom, Touts Outsized Gains for Ether.fi, Ethena and Hyperliquid

The forecast faces scrutiny over speculative assumptions, potential conflicts of interest and unsettled regulation.

Overview

  • Houston-based investor Arthur Hayes used an Aug. 27 blog to argue dollar‑pegged stablecoins could channel tens of trillions of dollars on chain, with scenarios ranging from a $10 trillion supply by 2028 to $34 trillion in broader inflows.
  • He named Ether.fi, Ethena and Hyperliquid as prime beneficiaries, projecting token price multipliers of roughly 34×, 51× and 126× based on spending, yield and derivatives activity tied to stablecoin use.
  • His thesis depends on conditions such as non‑US banks losing implicit access to US Treasury support, widespread integration of stablecoin payments in the Global South and limited capital controls.
  • Coverage notes Hayes’ ties to the sector, including backing some highlighted projects and his roles at Maelstrom and BitMEX, urging readers to weigh potential conflicts alongside the thesis.
  • Analysts offer more conservative trajectories, with Coinbase estimating a $1.2 trillion stablecoin market by 2028 and Keyrock/Bitso seeing a 12% share of cross‑border payments by 2030, compared with today’s roughly $273–$280 billion supply.