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Arthur Hayes Calls Fed’s RMP ‘QE in Disguise,’ Maps Bitcoin Path Toward $200,000 in 2026

On-chain metrics from CryptoQuant point to downside risk despite renewed liquidity narratives.

Overview

  • Hays projects Bitcoin will chop between $80,000 and $100,000 near term, then reclaim $124,000 before a push toward $200,000 by March 2026.
  • He argues the Fed’s Reserve Management Purchases mimic quantitative easing through money market funds, creating credit expansion without a formal QE label.
  • The Fed began buying Treasury bills on Dec. 12 with guidance for up to $40 billion in purchases within 30 days under the new program.
  • Hayes says New York Fed discretion under “ample reserves” guidance could allow larger balance-sheet growth, and he has shifted from ETH into selected DeFi tokens.
  • CryptoQuant cautions that slowing demand could see Bitcoin fall toward $56,000, with interim support discussed around $70,000, while spot prices hover near $88,400.