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Arsenal Top at Christmas as Title Race Tightens Into Festive Run

Forecasts favor Mikel Arteta’s side, the festive run now the proving ground.

Overview

  • Arsenal sit on 39 points after 17 matches, two ahead of Manchester City and three clear of in‑form Aston Villa.
  • Opta-based models currently give Arsenal the largest title probability at 68.7%, with City at 24.7% and Villa at 5.3%.
  • Aston Villa have won 10 straight in all competitions and face Chelsea before visiting Arsenal in a sequence set to clarify their credentials.
  • Commentators question Arsenal’s composure and finishing while pointing to Manchester City’s scoring power, with Erling Haaland prolific.
  • Wolves are bottom with two points from 17 games, the worst top-flight start on record, and only 12% of teams in last place on Christmas have stayed up.