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Arsenal Stay Four Clear as Man City Close In and Models Still Back Gunners

Fresh simulations after the weekend place Arsenal as heavy favourites based on superior underlying metrics.

Overview

  • Arsenal remain top after 11 matches following a 2-2 draw at Sunderland, preserving a four-point lead and boasting just five goals conceded.
  • Manchester City’s 3-0 win over Liverpool at the Etihad narrowed the gap to four points and re-energised their pursuit.
  • Liverpool have lost five of their last six league games and sit eight points off Arsenal, with coach Arne Slot urging a focus on results over title talk.
  • Scott Willis’ model now gives Arsenal roughly 76% to win the league, with Man City up to about 18%, Liverpool down near 5%, and Chelsea near 1%.
  • Pundits are divided: Paul Scholes backs City’s experience, Michael Owen questions Arsenal’s top-end ceiling yet praises their efficiency, and David James doubts Arsenal’s staying power while tipping Chelsea as a dark horse.