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Arsenal Lead Premier League at Christmas With Slim Edge as City Chase on Goal Difference

Data models favor Arsenal, with City’s firepower the chief threat.

Overview

  • Arsenal sit first on 39 points from 17 matches, two clear of Manchester City, who have scored more and hold the superior goal difference.
  • Opta’s title probabilities place Arsenal at 68.7%, City at 24.7%, and in-form Aston Villa at 5.3%.
  • Aston Villa have won 10 straight in all competitions and seven in a row in the league, moving within three points of the leaders before trips to Chelsea and Arsenal.
  • Leaders at Christmas have won the Premier League in 17 of 33 seasons, yet Arsenal have never converted any of their four previous Christmas leads in the Premier League era.
  • At the bottom, Wolves have a record-worst two points after 17 games, and history shows only four bottom-at-Christmas sides have survived, with none overturning a gap greater than five points.