Overview
- Using weekly returns from 2020 to early 2026, ARK reports bitcoin correlations of 0.14 with gold, 0.06 with bonds, and 0.28 with the S&P 500, compared with 0.27 for the S&P 500 versus bonds.
- The report projects bitcoin’s supply growth at about 0.82% annually for the next two years, then near 0.41%, and links this scarcity to a roughly 360% price rise since late 2022.
- Cathie Wood frames a 'coiled spring' U.S. economy and a possible 'Reaganomics on steroids' policy mix as a regime that could shift allocator views toward bitcoin’s diversification role rather than a pure gold substitute.
- ARK highlights 2025’s divergence—gold up about 65% as bitcoin slipped roughly 6%—to argue the assets serve different purposes, with bitcoin presented as complementary diversification.
- Long-term scenarios cited by ARK remain in place, and fresh commentary notes mixed Wall Street signals, including new guidance allowing small allocations and a Jefferies strategist dropping a 10% bitcoin stake over security concerns.