Overview

• ARK Invest’s open-source model with Mach33 predicts a base-case enterprise value of $2.5 trillion for SpaceX by 2030, up from $350 billion in 2024.
• Monte Carlo simulations outline a bear-case valuation of about $1.7 trillion and a bull-case of $3.1 trillion based on more than one million iterations.
• Starlink’s constellation, targeted to reach 42,000 satellites, has grown to over 6 million active connections in 140 countries as of June 2025.
• ARK projects Starlink could generate roughly $300 billion in annual revenue by 2035, representing about 15% of global communications spending.
• Elon Musk’s plan to fund Mars infrastructure hinges on Starlink cash flows and Tesla’s Optimus robots building out initial settlements.