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Argentine Markets Strain After Buenos Aires Vote as Dollar Nears Top of Exchange Band

Rising risk premiums alongside constrained reserves are limiting policy room.

Overview

  • The wholesale dollar traded near 1,422 pesos and the BCRA average stood around 1,382 for buying and 1,435 for selling, with Banco Nación at 1,425.
  • Financial rates edged above the wholesale level, with MEP near 1,435 pesos and CCL around 1,439, reflecting brechas of roughly 1.8% to 2.1%.
  • Parallel quotes climbed as well, with the blue in Rosario at 1,384/1,435 pesos and Bahía Blanca reported around 1,410.
  • Country risk closed Monday at 1,108 basis points after global bonds fell about 6% to 8% and the Merval dropped 16.7% in dollars, then saw partial rebounds Tuesday in stocks and some bonds.
  • Analysts warned that, despite available liquid reserves, net reserves remain negative due to IMF-leveraged buffers, underscoring pressures on the banded exchange-rate regime.