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Argentina’s Treasury Says 103% Rollover but Auction Actually Expanded Pesos

The November 11 auction left roughly $1.7 billones net in the market, a sign of rising refinancing stress as the central bank stepped in to supply short‑term liquidity.

Overview

  • The Treasury on November 11 adjudicated $8.87 billones in a multi‑instrument sale that the ministry presented as a 103.07% rollover but, when two inflation‑linked Boncer payments are included, the effective rollover falls to about 84%, releasing roughly $1.7 billones into circulation.
  • Investor demand concentrated in a new short TAMAR‑linked note (M30A7), which raised about $3.51 billones, while the only bond stretching past the 2027 election, the Boncer TZX28, drew very little interest and raised about $0.4 billones.
  • To place fixed‑rate paper the Treasury paid a premium of roughly 100 basis points above secondary‑market levels, showing higher funding costs for longer or locked‑rate debt.
  • The central bank actively supplied liquidity around the auction through REPO operations reported near $1.3 billones to calm very short‑term rates and ease pressure on banks and dealers.
  • The operation raises near‑term risk because the Treasury still faces very large maturities at the end of November and mid‑December (market estimates around $29.4 billones and $36.6 billones), so upcoming auctions, swaps and continued BCRA support will determine whether funding costs climb further or refinancing strains deepen.