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Argentina’s Tourism Deficit Persists as Brazil Travel Gets Pricier, Outlook Points to Softer Outbound in 2026

New Brazilian taxes plus Argentina’s exchange‑rate reset are reshaping summer travel incentives.

Overview

  • Analysts estimate a 2025 tourism net deficit of roughly US$7–8.5 billion, with currency outflows near US$12–13 billion and inbound receipts around US$4.5 billion.
  • In the first 11 months of 2025, about 11.2 million residents traveled abroad versus 4.8 million foreign arrivals, a 2.3 to 1 imbalance that strained foreign‑exchange reserves.
  • Brazil has become costlier for Argentines due to an 11% real appreciation in 2025, a dual VAT in effect since Jan. 1 that lifted airfares by up to 25%, and added local environmental fees.
  • Early‑2026 expectations point to weaker outbound travel and a gradual inbound recovery, with Ieral noting lower exchange‑rate uncertainty and a potential “Messi effect” that could slightly narrow the gap.
  • International air capacity stands about 31% above pre‑pandemic levels versus only 5% for domestic, while the government launched Banco Nación’s Viajá+ credit at a 28% fixed TNA to bolster local trips.