Overview
- Argentina posted a primary surplus of about 1.8% of GDP last year, with roughly 1.6% projected for 2025, marking a firmer fiscal anchor than the 2016–2017 attempt.
- Country risk fell from roughly 1,100–1,200 to about 650–700 basis points after the elections, yet international markets remain effectively closed.
- Gross reserves are near US$41 billion and net around US$4.5 billion, which economists at a Buenos Aires forum called the plan’s weakest pillar as they pressed for faster accumulation.
- Panelists cited past stress episodes eased by dollar injections and warned that a further exchange‑rate adjustment may be needed, while reforms in labor, pensions and taxes are seen as essential for lasting gains.
- With explicit U.S. support and sizable idle dollars at home—about US$40 billion in sight deposits and an estimated US$200 billion outside the system—some analysts see scope for renewed market access if policy signals and reserves strengthen.