Overview

• BCR reports 568,000 tonnes of soy shipped in the first half of August with a further 1.3 million tonnes scheduled, a lineup that could make this the second‑best August on record if completed.
• July soybean grain exports topped 1.3 million tonnes, roughly four times July 2024, reflecting exceptionally strong physical flows.
• China remains the principal buyer, with campaign shipments to that market projected by BCR at about 4.9 million tonnes, the largest since 2020 if the program is fulfilled.
• Export registrations have cooled sharply since June’s surge, with August DJVE around 2.25 million tonnes versus 23.5 million in June, and analysts estimating agro FX inflows at roughly US$1.15–1.5 billion versus US$4.1 billion in July.
• Large private dollar outflows weigh on the balance: Equilibra estimates first‑half tourism net outflows equaled 32% of agro liquidations, with proxies pointing to July remaining near record spending levels.