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Argentina’s Slowdown Deepens as Job Cuts Mount and the Peso Tests Its Band

IMF reassurance has failed to steady markets, prompting a new wave of recession warnings.

Overview

  • Industrial activity stayed in contraction in July, with the UIA’s monitor at 45.3 for a 13th straight month below expansion as 43.5% of firms reported lower domestic sales and roughly a quarter reduced staff.
  • Official data show June posted the highest number of dismissals in nine years, confirming a sharp deterioration in formal employment.
  • Bankers report rising payment‑chain stress: Banco Macro’s Jorge Brito said rejected checks doubled from June to July and kept increasing in August.
  • Market volatility intensified after the provincial election, with Argentine ADRs falling up to 24%, the Merval down 18% in dollars for the week, and country risk topping 1,100 basis points.
  • The dollar traded near the top of the exchange band around $1,470; traders cited about US$300 million in sell orders as speculation swirled over intervention, while the IMF reaffirmed support and economists increasingly warn of a second‑half recession.