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Argentina’s Provincial Transfers Drop 10.3% in Real Terms, Worst September Since 2017

A collapse in special-law revenues, compounded by a distorted 2024 base, drove the decline.

Overview

  • The national government sent ARS 5.091 trillion to provinces and CABA in September, up 18.3% nominally but down 10.3% after inflation and 2.8% versus August.
  • Pure tax-sharing made up 91% of the flows and fell 0.8% in real terms year over year, while special-law items plunged 73.9% as Bienes Personales dropped 92.1% and energy-regime funds fell 52.5%.
  • Composition effects were decisive: internal taxes fell 34.6% and other coparticipated tributes sank 83.2%, while modest gains in Income Tax (+3%) and VAT (+1.2%) failed to offset the declines.
  • The impact varied widely by province, with Santa Fe down about 12.8% in real terms and Córdoba around 14.6%, while CABA saw the smallest drop at 0.6%; Santa Cruz and La Pampa were also among the hardest hit.
  • For January–September, automatic transfers are up about 2.4% in real terms overall and coparticipation is roughly flat (+0.4%), yet constant-peso levels remain below recent years as tensions grow over ATN and fuel-tax distribution ahead of 2026 budget talks.