Overview

• The zero‑duty window drove roughly US$6.3 billion in agro liquidations, yet the Treasury purchased only about US$2.2–2.3 billion, curbing reserve buildup.
• Authorities defended the band with dollar sales and tighter controls, reimposing anti‑arbitrage limits and pressing virtual wallets to halt official‑dollar sales as the BCRA reiterated that only banks and licensed exchangers may operate.
• Early October trading showed renewed stress with the wholesale rate swinging toward $1,450 before retreating near $1,380, sovereign bonds falling up to 6%, and risk around 1,230 basis points.
• The government confirmed a Milei–Trump meeting in Washington on October 14, yet signals of U.S. support remain conditional, with market commentary citing political hurdles and objections in Congress to a US$20 billion swap.
• Futures pricing and wider financial gaps reflect expectations that the banded exchange regime could be altered after the October 26 elections, reinforcing portfolio dollarization.