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Argentina's Peso Gains Momentum as Floating Exchange Rate Band Stabilizes

The peso shows potential for further appreciation, while inflation and wage restrictions fuel economic challenges.

Para Analytica, el mayor aumento en el promedio de las últimas cuatro semanas se dio en verduras (+7,9%) y carnes y derivados (+3,2%)
Luis Caputo y Javier Milei.
El consumo de carne sigue en mínimos históricos y es reemplazado por otros productos.
En las últimas semanas, las paritarias en la mayoría de los sectores se enrarecieron. (José Gabriel Hernández / La Voz)

Overview

  • The peso has traded between ARS 1,070 and ARS 1,200 since the April 11 introduction of a floating exchange rate band, without central bank intervention.
  • Bank of America reversed its prior bearish stance and now advises investors to buy pesos, anticipating further currency appreciation.
  • April food inflation reached 3.4%, with meat prices surging 6.9%, exacerbating household cost pressures.
  • The Labor Ministry's 2% monthly cap on wage increases has sparked tensions with unions, straining wage negotiations.
  • Private consultancies predict April inflation will be lower than March's 3.7%, with estimates ranging from 2.5% to 3.3%.