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Argentina’s Peso Band Holds as Official and Blue Rates Align Near ARS 1,310

Recent IMF disbursement and elevated deposit yields have narrowed dollar spreads, but electoral and external uncertainties continue to threaten depreciation risks.

Overview

  • The Banco Nación official rate stands at ARS 1,270/1,310 (buy/sell) while the informal blue dollar trades at ARS 1,300/1,320, reflecting a compressed spread under the new floating‐band regime.
  • A US$1.99 billion IMF tranche lifted Argentina’s gross reserves above US$43 billion, bolstering the central bank’s ability to intervene at the band’s edges.
  • Commercial banks have increased term‐deposit rates to around 40% annual interest to absorb excess peso liquidity and anchor market expectations.
  • The Treasury and BCRA have deployed higher reserve requirements and emergency bond auctions to soak up roughly $6 trillion pesos and stabilize financial‐dollar measures.
  • Economists caution that upcoming midterm elections and potential external trade or financial shocks could still spark sharper peso depreciation and reignite inflation pressures.