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last wk.

Argentina’s Peso at Record ARS 1,260 Per Dollar, Nearing Upper Band

IMF support lifted reserves to USD 41.7 billion, with seasonal demand and collapsing carry trade yields fueling forecasts above ARS 1,300 by year-end.

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Marina Dal Poggetto es la directora de Eco Go
Una baja escalonada de las retenciones y una reforma laboral estimularían la inversión
El ministro de Economía, Luis Caputo, durante su participación en el IAE Summit, la semana última

Overview

  • The official peso-dollar rate climbed ARS 15 this week to ARS 1,260 at Banco Nación, the highest since the floating band was introduced in April.
  • The blue (informal) dollar trades near ARS 1,230 for sale, leaving a narrow ARS 30 gap with the official rate.
  • After the first IMF tranche, BCRA reserves rose by USD 12 billion to USD 41.739 billion, bolstering confidence in the new exchange regime.
  • Carry trade returns on peso instruments plunged from 15.4% in April to 0.8% in June, dampening investor demand for peso assets.
  • Economists in the BCRA’s June survey forecast a year-end wholesale rate of ARS 1,324, while futures markets price December contracts around ARS 1,422.