Overview

• The official exchange rate rose for a second session, with the wholesale closing at ARS 1,315 on August 21 and Banco Nación near ARS 1,325, while the blue hovered around ARS 1,340.
• One‑day cauciones spiked to roughly 150% on Wednesday, then eased to about 51.5% on Thursday after a 70% close, reflecting acute stress in the cash market under tighter encajes and rule changes.
• Futures strengthened, with pricing near ARS 1,332 for end‑August and roughly ARS 1,505–1,534 by December, signaling expectations of further depreciation later in the year.
• Financial assets remained fragile, with a sharp stock sell‑off and high volatility in peso instruments following an emergency Treasury auction and tension in interest rates.
• An IMF disbursement of about US$1.993 billion lifted gross reserves to around US$43 billion, while Congress’s review of President Javier Milei’s vetoes drew warnings about risks to fiscal targets tied to the IMF program.