Overview

• Between August 11 and 14 the informal blue dollar matched Banco Nación’s ARS 1,335 sale price and briefly rose to ARS 1,340, resulting in zero or negative spreads against the official rate.
• Dollar MEP and CCL trades narrowed to within 0.2–0.5% of the official rate, reflecting an unprecedented convergence across FX segments.
• A $1.993 billion IMF-related inflow lifted BCRA gross reserves to about $43.023 billion, enabling the central bank to rely on futures and repo interventions instead of spot sales.
• Market analysts attribute the recent dollar retreat to high policy rates and exporters’ accelerated liquidations, which have bolstered peso liquidity.
• Futures markets price the wholesale exchange rate near ARS 1,344 by late August and project levels above ARS 1,500 by December, signaling expected further peso depreciation.