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Argentina’s October Inflation Seen Back Above 2% Ahead of INDEC Report

Analysts cite food costs plus a short pre‑election currency jolt as key drivers of a likely monthly uptick.

Overview

  • INDEC is set to publish the October consumer price index on Wednesday, following September’s 2.1% that ended four months below 2%.
  • Private estimates for October vary widely, with readings around 2.0% to above 3.0% from consultancies including Eco Go (2.4%), LCG (around 3.3%–3.6%), Econviews (2.7%) and C&T (2.0%).
  • Food categories were pivotal in several surveys, with LCG reporting double‑digit dairy increases that accounted for a large share of its monthly rise.
  • Consultancies observed a brief acceleration in the week before the elections tied to exchange‑rate moves, followed by calmer pricing after the official victory.
  • Early local signals show the City of Buenos Aires at 2.2% in October, while C&T’s Greater Buenos Aires survey put the month at 2.0% and the 12‑month rate easing to 29.3%.