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Argentina’s Lower House Backs 2026 Budget, but Key Social-Funding Rollbacks Fail

The presidency is regrouping for the Senate fight after Chapter XI fell, warning the setback jeopardizes its surplus targets.

Overview

  • Deputies granted initial approval to President Javier Milei’s 2026 budget, but they rejected Chapter XI that included Article 75, so emergency protections for disability and university financing remain in force.
  • After the defeat on particulars, the Casa Rosada convened its political table to map a Senate strategy that could include vote‑by‑vote negotiations, text changes, or other measures to salvage fiscal goals.
  • The fallen chapter also blocked bundled measures tied to CABA revenue transfers, changes to family-assignment indexation, curbs to the Zona Fría gas subsidy, and added funding for the judiciary.
  • The bill’s macro framework projects 5% GDP growth, 10.1% annual inflation, a December 2026 exchange rate of 1,423 pesos per dollar, and primary surplus targets cited by the government.
  • The split vote exposed fractures with provincial allies and raised options under discussion such as negotiating revisions in the Senate or potentially vetoing an unchanged bill, with any Senate amendments sending the text back to Deputies and the risk of rolling over the prior budget if no law passes by January 1.