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Argentina’s June Growth Masks Slowing Momentum as Mexico Raises 2025 Outlook

Argentina’s slowdown raises doubts about its recovery without reforms, triggering higher forecasts from Mexican lenders

En Las Vegas ha comenzado una nueva recesión, con la ocupación hotelera, el número de visitantes y el gasto en descenso, asegura un analista.
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Overview

  • Argentina’s General Activity Index recorded 7.4% year-on-year growth in June alongside a 0.7% monthly rise that left activity below February’s pre-contraction level.
  • INDEC’s Monthly Economic Estimator showed a 0.1% drop in May and a deceleration from 1.3% expansion in Q1 to a 0.5% gain in the second half of the year.
  • Consultora Invecq projects Argentina could grow just 1% in the rest of 2025 absent structural reforms as high interest rates and inflation targets weigh on expansion.
  • Mexico’s INEGI data revealed a 0.7% seasonally adjusted GDP increase in Q2 and a 0.9% year-on-year rise in the first half driven by secondary and tertiary sectors.
  • Banamex, Banco Base and Goldman Sachs have lifted Mexico’s full-year GDP forecasts to between 0.35% and 0.5% as external tariff threats and weaker remittances pose risks.