Overview
- INDEC reported a 2.1% monthly inflation rate for May, which was the second consecutive monthly deceleration and left the January–May accumulation at 14.7% and the year‑on‑year rate at 33.2%.
- Independent consultoras recalculated the index using the postponed ENGHo 2017/18 basket and estimate May inflation around 2.2–2.3%, raising the January–May total by about 0.9–1.3 percentage points versus the official series.
- Sector detail from INDEC showed Communications and Education led monthly increases while regulated prices rose 2.4% and the core measure (IPC núcleo) was 1.9%, but private weekly indices in early June show food items, especially meats, re‑accelerating.
- The May print has already lowered the projected pace of the BCRA's July exchange‑band update and the central bank's REM projects inflation could fall below 2% by August if the trend holds, a result that may require stronger exchange‑rate and wage anchors.
- Regional readings differ: Santa Fe reported 2.3% in May and a five‑month accumulation of 15.2%, underscoring local variation that will affect household purchasing power, wage talks and the distributional impact of any policy choices.