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Argentina’s Inflation Expectations Drop to 29.7%, Lowest Since 2018

A UTDT household survey points to a broad-based pullback that coincided with early‑November market calm.

Overview

  • The average 12‑month outlook fell 7.3 points from October’s 37%, and the median declined to 23%, both the lowest since March 2018.
  • Fieldwork covered roughly 1,000 respondents between November 1 and 13, shortly after legislative election results.
  • Short‑term inflation for the next 30 days was estimated at 3.62% on average with a 2% median, down from October’s 3.96% and 3%.
  • Expectations eased across regions—Interior 28.1%, Greater Buenos Aires 31.6%, and CABA 33.4%—and remained higher among lower‑income households (31.7%) than higher‑income (28.7%).
  • Response dispersion narrowed (interquartile range 25 points, P25 15%, P75 40%), yet household views still exceed consultants’ 20.8% and the budget’s 10.1% assumption.