Overview

• Overall private‑sector irregularity rose to 2.9% in June, the highest since January 2025, according to the BCRA.
• Household delinquency reached 5.2% versus 1.1% for companies, with year‑on‑year jumps in credit cards to 4.4% and personal loans to 6.4%.
• Secured lending proved more resilient, with mortgage delinquency at 1.4% (1.0% on UVA mortgages) and auto loans at 2.6%.
• Loan balances expanded in real terms in June—pesos up 4.2% and dollars up 3.8%—after the end of LEFIs freed liquidity, though the BCRA warned of rate volatility and a later credit slowdown.
• Banks and economists say July–August interest‑rate spikes could create a snowball of defaults, and Moody’s expects arrears to keep rising until real rates ease and wages recover.