Overview
- Official central bank data and CEPA analysis show family loan delinquency hit about 12.3–12.8% and systemwide irregularity reached roughly 15.5%, with non‑bank lenders recording a 29.6% delinquency rate.
- The rise has been driven by heavier use of fintechs and billeteras that expanded fast, now holding around two‑thirds of loans judged irrecoverable and a disproportionate share of recent losses.
- About 20.9 million people have formal debt in the system and roughly 5.8 million are over 90 days past due, with many debtors concentrated in northern provinces and younger age groups.
- Banks have sharply tightened household lending and are selectively refinancing firms as high personal loan rates near 66% versus deposit rates near 21% raise borrowing costs and squeeze households.
- Policymakers and industry groups are debating fixes focused on cutting tax and administrative costs on credit, lowering effective rates, and containing regional and youth‑heavy pockets of systemic risk.