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Argentina’s FX Market Strains as Blue Hits ARS 1,540 and Spot Volume Nears Record

Traders report official dollar sales and a sharp reserves decline ahead of the Jan. 9 debt payment.

Overview

  • The spot market traded about USD 903 million on Dec. 29, one of the year’s largest sessions, with the wholesale dollar closing at ARS 1,457 and Banco Nación’s retail at ARS 1,475.
  • Financial dollars firmed, with MEP near ARS 1,487 and CCL around ARS 1,530–1,535, while the informal blue rose to ARS 1,540, its highest level in more than two months.
  • Market participants cited Treasury dollar sales, and at times BCRA presence, to keep the official rate from nearing the upper band, as short-term funding rates spiked and year-end liquidity thinned.
  • Gross reserves fell by roughly USD 1.7 billion on the day, a drop analysts largely linked to valuation effects such as gold prices, alongside suspected intervention flows.
  • A new inflation-indexed exchange-rate band begins in early January, with investor focus on roughly USD 4.3 billion in external debt due Jan. 9 and reported funding options that include local dollar placements, possible repos and available reserves.