Overview
- Official data showed a sharp July 2026 monthly fall that was later revised deeper, and the small rebound in August left overall activity too weak to prevent a likely Q3 contraction.
- Private registered employment has fallen for 14 consecutive months through July 2026, with more than 160,000 jobs lost since mid‑2025 and steep declines concentrated in industry, construction and commerce.
- The metalworking sector contracted 3.3% year‑on‑year in September and ran at just 40.2% capacity use, the lowest September reading since 2016, signaling large idle industrial capacity.
- The IMF has cut Argentina’s growth forecast to about 2.1% for 2026 and reiterated calls for fiscal consolidation even as the national government reports a primary fiscal surplus for the first nine months.
- Industry groups urged that big projects under the RIGI channel work to domestic suppliers to revive factories and jobs, while analysts warn the gap between official optimism and hard data raises downside risks for income and living standards.