Overview
- Rosgan, using SENASA data, reported about 2.18–2.2 million cattle in feedlots as of June 1, a monthly rise that tops last year’s peak and reflects a historic level of corral finishing.
- Slaughter has fallen sharply through the year with accumulated faena down roughly 11% in January–May 2026 while exports have grown, with shipments to April about 10% higher than a year earlier, reducing volume for local consumers.
- The composition of feedlot stocks has shifted toward heavier animals, with novillos, novillitos and vaquillonas up as much as 60% and terneros/terneras down about 45%, and many lots now finishing for about 130–140 days rather than the prior ~90 days.
- Retail beef prices have stabilized recently: IPCVA recorded an average of 18,569 pesos per kilo in May, and apparent per‑capita beef consumption fell to just under 48 kg a year, roughly 5% below the prior year as consumers trade toward cheaper proteins.
- Analysts warn it is premature to expect a sharp drop in consumer prices because extended finishing cycles, the export pull for heavier carcasses and recent feedlot capacity expansion stagger how and when that record stock reaches domestic markets and slaughter plants.