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Argentina’s Farm-Led Export Rebound Sets Wheat Shipping Record, but Low Prices Mute Dollar Gains

Cut‑rate FOBs in a supply‑heavy world are steering sales to Indonesia and Vietnam, keeping the 2025/26 wheat haul near $3.5 billion.

Overview

  • From January to November 2025, exports reached $79.592 billion (+9.5% year over year) on 132.2 million tonnes (+13.8%) as average export prices fell 3.7%, according to Politikon Chaco using INDEC data.
  • In November, the agroindustrial sector moved 10.09 million tonnes worth $4.715 billion, its best result in at least a decade, with wheat exports up 133% to 1.38 million tonnes, official data show.
  • December wheat shipments are estimated at about 2.48 million tonnes, a monthly record, with Indonesia and Vietnam surpassing Brazil as top destinations and China making its first purchases in decades, the Rosario exchange reported.
  • Wheat output is projected between 26.8 and 27.7 million tonnes, the highest on record, driven by exceptional yields on largely steady planted area.
  • Despite the volume surge, an average FOB near $200 per tonne pegs projected wheat export revenue around $3.5 billion, while exporter purchases of 9.1 million tonnes versus 3.8 million tonnes declared signal a sizable available balance.