Overview
- Declared grain and byproduct exports reached 105.5 million tonnes in 2025, up 53.2% year over year, with the top 10 traders controlling 90.5% and Cargill leading at 17.3 million tonnes, according to BCR.
- Agroexporters liquidated USD 31.338 billion in 2025, USD 6.25 billion more than in 2024, with December at USD 1.015 billion as wheat and barley shipments began and temporary duty relief under Decree 682/2025 supported flows.
- BCR projects 2025/26 grain output near 154.8–155 million tonnes and export shipments around 110 million tonnes, yet values are seen at about USD 36.8 billion, only roughly USD 600 million above the prior campaign.
- Trade diplomacy expanded sales options with 162 market openings and reopenings in 2025, including the first recent wheat shipment to China and broader access following avian influenza-related closures.
- Analysts warn that record volumes and subdued prices could pressure farmgate values unless domestic demand grows, with proposals to raise biofuel blending and expand processing to absorb surplus.