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2h ago

Argentina’s Expansion Stalls as Q2 GDP Contracts 0.1% and Job Quality Worsens

A recession signaled by leading indicators puts the government’s 5.4% growth target in doubt.

En el segundo trimestre del año hubo mayor presión sobre el mercado de trabajo
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La actividad abandonó el rebote en V y cayó
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Overview

  • INDEC reported a 0.1% quarter‑on‑quarter GDP drop in Q2 2025, ending three straight quarters of growth.
  • Unemployment stood at 7.6% in Q2—about 1.7 million people—stable year over year and 0.3 points below Q1.
  • Informality reached 43.2% of the employed population as analysts warn the slowdown will push more workers into precarious and self‑employed roles.
  • Key demand drivers weakened in Q2, with household consumption down 1.1% and investment down 0.5%, while exports fell 2.2% and public consumption rose 1.1%.
  • UTDT’s Índice Líder put the probability of entering recession at roughly 98.6%, and private consultancies expect activity to contract in Q3, with sharper labor strains in areas such as Gran Buenos Aires, Gran Resistencia and Gran Córdoba.