Overview
- INDEC's August EMAE showed a 0.1% seasonally adjusted monthly rise and a 1.7% year‑on‑year fall, the largest interannual drop in 2026 and the second consecutive annual decline.
- The smoother tendencia‑ciclo stood at 0.0% and INDEC revised July's monthly contraction slightly to -2.8%, points Minister Luis Caputo used to note the series remains 6.6% above December 2023.
- The recovery was uneven with mining and utilities powering gains—mining rose 11.1%—while industry fell 3.2%, wholesale and retail trade fell 3.5%, construction fell 2.5% and ten of 15 sectors showed yearly declines.
- Private analysts say avoiding a technical recession would need an implausible roughly 8.5–8.6% monthly jump in September, a shortfall that has led consultoras to cut 2026 growth forecasts.
- August's result trimmed cumulative growth for January–August to 1.2% and reinforces signs of weak domestic demand and low investment that could weigh on jobs and consumption in the coming months.