Overview
- INDEC’s August EMAE, published Wednesday, showed a 0.1% seasonally adjusted monthly rise and a 1.7% year‑on‑year drop that cut January–August growth to 1.2%.
- Ten of 15 sectors fell year‑on‑year with industry down 3.2% and commerce down 3.5%, while mining rose 11.1% and utilities climbed 4.3%, concentrating gains in capital‑intensive areas like Vaca Muerta.
- The government’s smoother tendencia‑ciclo indicator moved from +0.2% in July to 0.0% in August and the economy minister noted it remains above the December 2023 level to stress longer‑run momentum.
- Market and analyst expectations were disappointed because forecasts had expected about a 1% monthly recovery, and INDEC slightly revised July’s monthly fall from 2.9% to 2.8%, prompting downgrades to 2026 growth projections.
- The data raise clear near‑term risks for jobs and incomes because the losses are concentrated in employment‑heavy sectors, and avoiding a technical recession would require an unusually large rebound in September.