Overview

• Official data show July contractions of 2.3% month over month in industry and 1.8% in construction, extending the loss of momentum seen since late autumn.
• The UIA’s industrial monitor stayed in contraction at 45.3 points, with 43.5% of firms reporting lower domestic sales, 19.4% reducing staff, and 44.1% struggling to meet at least one payment.
• Analysts from FIEL, Equilibra and EcoGo say recession in the third and fourth quarters is likely after July’s sharp monetary tightening and a roughly 14% jump in the dollar, and several have cut 2025 growth forecasts.
• Labor stresses are intensifying, with June registering the highest number of layoffs in nine years in official records and 114,000 private salaried jobs lost between November 2023 and June.
• Cash‑flow strains are surfacing as Banco Macro reports rejected checks doubled from June to July and rose again in August, while traders noted heavy sell orders near the exchange‑rate band’s ceiling as officials describe July’s rate hike as temporary.