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Argentina’s Dollar Climbs Before Debt Sale as Risk Premium Hovers Near Mid‑600s

Lower interest rates have lifted peso liquidity, sharpening dollar demand ahead of the Treasury’s rollover test.

Overview

  • Official retail closed at ARS 1,475 at Banco Nación and the wholesale rate reached roughly ARS 1,453.50, while the blue eased to ARS 1,450 and financial dollars hovered near ARS 1,489 (MEP) and ARS 1,531 (CCL).
  • Argentina’s risk premium stayed around 650–656 basis points, with New York‑traded bank ADRs advancing and hard‑currency sovereign bonds mixed.
  • The Central Bank’s cut of the reference rate to 20% nominal annual deepened peso liquidity and added pressure to dollar demand across markets.
  • Economy Minister Luis Caputo denied a USD 20 billion private‑bank facility, and the Wall Street Journal reported a much smaller USD 4–5 billion repo under consideration, which authorities have not confirmed.
  • Market focus centers on today’s Treasury auction against ARS 14.5–15 trillion in maturities, while corporate and sub‑sovereign issuance is supplying an estimated USD 4 billion and BCRA reserves rose USD 227 million to about USD 41.18 billion.