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Argentina’s Disinflation Slows as December CPI Reaches 2.8% and 2025 Ends at 31.5%

Private forecasts point to roughly 24% inflation for 2026, far above the government’s 10.1% goal, as exchange‑rate and tariff risks and an incoming CPI methodology shift cloud the path ahead.

Overview

  • Food pressures were pronounced in Santa Fe, where the provincial statistics office reported a 3.8% monthly rise in the category, a 2.6% overall CPI in December, and a 33% annual rate for 2025.
  • A Rosario household of four needed nearly 2 million pesos in December to cover essential goods and services, according to Cesyac, with the basket up 3.09% on the month, the steepest rise of 2025.
  • INDEC data show December’s regulated prices rose 3.3% and core inflation hit 3.0%, and economists note services persistence could be accentuated by the new index’s higher services weighting from January.
  • Comparisons between national INDEC and Buenos Aires city Idecba data show item-level price gaps reaching about 40% on some products, even as the overall December CPI was 2.8% nationally versus 2.7% locally.
  • FocusEconomics’ survey places 2026 inflation near 24%, with analysts flagging potential exchange-rate adjustments, utility tariff updates and sizable debt rollovers as key risks to a faster disinflation.