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Argentina’s Disinflation Run Faces September Test as Food Costs Climb and Markets Jolt

High-frequency readings signal renewed pressure from fruits and vegetables after post‑election currency and rate swings, with the official September CPI still to come.

Overview

  • Private LCG data show food and beverage prices rose 0.9% week over week in the fourth week of September, taking the four‑week accumulated reading to 2.3% and the four‑week average to 1% monthly.
  • LCG attributes most of the latest weekly increase to fruits and vegetables, while dairy and eggs also advanced and some categories like condiments, sugar, and bakery products declined.
  • After the government’s defeat in the Buenos Aires provincial election, exchange‑rate and interest‑rate volatility appears to have added upward pressure to prices, and private estimates suggest September inflation could top 2%.
  • INDEC reported August inflation at 1.9%, the fourth straight month below 2% and the first such streak since 2017, setting up a closely watched September print ahead of the October 26 legislative vote.
  • Housing costs continue to bite: an analysis cited rents up 3.3% in August in Greater Buenos Aires and 51.4% so far in 2025 versus 19.5% for overall prices, while debates over reported poverty declines highlight concerns about methodology and the durability of recent gains.