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Argentina’s Debt-Market Return Calms Peso Pressures as Mexican Peso Logs Year’s Best Close on Fed Cut Odds

A Dec. 10 sale of a 6.5% Bonar due 2029, aimed at easing January redemptions, sent the official dollar lower, with country risk also falling.

Overview

  • Economy Minister Luis Caputo confirmed a Bonar 2029N auction under local law on Dec. 10 with settlement on Dec. 12, paying a 6.5% annual coupon and amortizing 100% at maturity.
  • The issuance is pitched to partially cover sizable January dollar maturities, with the remainder to be addressed via bank repo lines and other sources.
  • Following the announcement, Banco Nación’s dollar closed around 1,460 pesos for sale (1,410 buy), the wholesale rate fell to about 1,435, and the blue hovered near 1,435.
  • Argentina’s country risk retreated sharply into the low 600s, reported around 613–623 points, as sovereign bonds posted gains.
  • Regionally, the Mexican peso strengthened to 18.1824 per dollar—its best close of the year—as traders priced a likely U.S. Fed rate cut next week, with FedWatch odds near 87% and PCE inflation up 0.3% in line with forecasts.